The iPhone contributed to ‘a collapse in US fertility,’ claims scientific study
The iPhone contributed to ‘a collapse in US fertility,’ claims scientific study
Publish Date: 2026-07-01 08:27:00
Source Domain: 9to5mac.com
The launch of the iPhone was one factor contributing to a historically low birth rate in the United States, according to a new scientific study.
Specifically, the study claims that the iPhone “played a sizeable role” in a decline in unintended pregnancies …
As Macworld reports, the National Bureau of Economic Research carried out a statistical analysis in which it found a strong correlation between lower birth rates in parts of the US with higher-than-average iPhone ownership.
When the iPhone launched in 2007 and until 2011, AT&T was the only carrier for the phone. The researchers used this “to isolate an iPhone-specific channel” and compared birth rates in areas with a high AT&T customer base to areas where competitors such as Verizon were stronger.
The authors of the study claim the data supports their conclusion.
The observational evidence in Section 8 is consistent with this reading: as modern smartphones diffused, time spent with friends in person and sexual activity fell sharply alongside rising consumption of pornography, a possible substitute for partnered sex. These mechanisms may not be confined to the young: we observe similar trends for older populations and our SDID estimates of the effect of the iPhone on fertility remain negative and statistically significant at every age band through 40–44, implying that fertility at older ages too would have been higher absent the iPhone.
We do not claim that the iPhone is the sole cause of the post-2007 decline, nor that no policy lever can move the trajectory. But over the 2008–2011 window that our design identifies, our estimates imply that the introduction of the modern smartphone played a sizable role in the decline in U.S. births.
9to5Mac’s Take
While I have to give points for an imaginative methodology, the conclusion seems a stretch to put it mildly. There is a well-established correlation between better educated, higher earning demographics…
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