Iran and China are simultaneously driving a major energy transition
Iran and China are simultaneously driving a major energy transition
Publish Date: 2026-06-28 15:00:00
Source Domain: www.abc.net.au
Two things happened last week that give us a much clearer picture of what the world is going to be like from now on.
First, Iran asserted its control of the Strait of Hormuz by turning back two ships that didn’t take the correct route and second, a Chinese company released an AI model that is as good as ChatGPT but a fraction of the price.
They don’t seem linked, but they are. The Iran war and now Iran’s control of the door to the Persian Gulf has changed global shipping forever and become a powerful accelerator for renewable energy and electrification, while the coming collapse in token prices — the currency of AI — driven by China will lead to faster and more widespread adoption of AI, and therefore much more demand for electricity.
China’s AI start-up Zhipu’s GLM 5.2 artificial intelligence model landed last week. (Reuters: Laurie Chen)
Iran, and probably Oman, will use the fact that the Strait of Hormuz lies within their maritime sovereign border to both exert geopolitical leverage and make money.
That means shipping large volumes of oil, or anything at all for that matter, is going become more difficult and more expensive.
That is especially so if other countries that have a narrow, busy strait within their territorial waters do the same, such as Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia on both sides of the Strait of Malacca, and Eritrea, Djibouti and Yemen on both sides of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the entrance to the Red Sea.
Meanwhile in AI, China is about to do what China always does when it moves into an industry: prices fall, profits shrink and usage goes up.
For example, the Iran war isn’t the only reason EV sales are surging in Australia this year — it’s also because there are now about 30 Chinese EV models on the market from 12 manufacturers, with prices ranging from $23,000 to $130,000, and all of them half the price of similar European models.
The Iran war isn’t the only reason EV sales are surging in Australia this year. (ABC News: Lachlan Bennett)
