New study links iPhone to falling US birth rate

Source Domain: www.cultofmac.com

For years, economists blamed declining birth rates in the United States on rising housing costs, student debt, expensive childcare and delayed marriage. Now a study points to a surprising additional factor: the iPhone.

Researchers examining the long-running decline in U.S. fertility rates found evidence that smartphones may have contributed significantly to the drop in births since 2007, the same year Apple launched the original iPhone.

iPhone may play a role in U.S. birth rate decline

In the mid-20th century, American women had an average of about 3.77 children over their lifetimes. By comparison, the U.S. total fertility rate in 2024 was about 1.6 children per woman, less than half the Baby Boom peak and well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.

The decline has been blamed on the ballooning cost of living, economic uncertainty, urbanization and many other factors. But no one thought the iPhone played a role … until now.

In 2007, when the iPhone debuted, the birth rate was roughly 2.12 children per woman. It’s now 25% lower. A study published this month by the National Bureau of Economic Research estimates that the spread of the iPhone could explain between 33% and 52% of the decline in fertility among women ages 15 to 44.

What?! How?

The research takes advantage of a unique historical circumstance. From 2007 through 2011, the iPhone was available exclusively through AT&T in the United States. That allowed economists to compare birth trends in regions with strong AT&T coverage against areas where access to the device was more limited.

According to the researchers, birth rates fell more sharply in places where iPhone adoption occurred sooner.

In 2007, when the iPhone debuted, the birth rate was roughly 2.12 children per woman. It’s now 25% lower. The study’s authors argue that smartphones profoundly changed how people interact with one another. Their theory is that increased screen time, reduced face-to-face socializing, greater…

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