Whether Artificial General Intelligence Will Arise Spontaneously Or Via Slow Roll
Whether Artificial General Intelligence Will Arise Spontaneously Or Via Slow Roll
Publish Date: 2026-06-20 03:15:00
Source Domain: www.forbes.com
Advancing AI to AGI or ASI is seen as achieved via a spontaneous intelligence explosion but others believe that incremental steps will suffice.
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In today’s column, I do some myth-busting by taking apart a prevailing assumption that attaining artificial general intelligence (AGI) and artificial superintelligence (ASI) will of necessity happen on a spontaneous basis. The prevailing wisdom is that AGI or ASI will just suddenly and miraculously be reached, as though a spark of lightning suddenly made it happen.
A counter viewpoint is that we are going to stepwise incrementally make our way to the topmost AI. A gradual but persistent slow roll is an alternative viable means of landing on AGI or ASI.
Let’s talk about it.
This analysis of an innovative AI breakthrough is part of my ongoing Forbes column coverage on the latest in AI, including identifying and explaining various impactful AI complexities (see the link here).
The Pursuit Of AGI And ASI
There is a great deal of research going on to further advance AI. The general goal is to either reach artificial general intelligence (AGI) or maybe even the outstretched possibility of achieving artificial superintelligence (ASI).
AGI is AI that is considered on par with human intellect and can seemingly match our intelligence. ASI is AI that has gone beyond human intellect and would be superior in many if not all feasible ways. The idea is that ASI would be able to run circles around humans by outthinking us at every turn. For more details on the nature of AI, AGI, and ASI, see my analysis at the link here.
AI insiders are pretty much divided into two major camps right now about the impacts of reaching AGI or ASI. One camp consists of the AI doomers. They are predicting that AGI or ASI will seek to wipe out humanity. Some refer to this as “P(doom),” which means the probability of doom, or that AI zonks us entirely, also known as the existential risk of AI.
The other camp entails the so-called AI accelerationists….
