Artificial Intelligence Q1 2026 Global Report – Hot topics, deal trends, and market outlook

AI is already influencing growth at an economy-wide level: Barron’s estimates AI investment drove nearly 60% of U.S. GDP growth in Q4 2025, while PwC expects AI to account for up to 15 percentage points to global GDP through 2035.
AI spending is now a capital-formation and infrastructure cycle as much as a software cycle: Global CapEx on data centers is forecast to reach $2.9 trillion through 2028.
- Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta alone have guided to ~$490-520 billion of 2026 CapEx, explaining why private capital investors are all being pulled deeper into the AI value chain
The tailwinds are clearer, but headwinds are getting more structural: Enterprise return on investment (ROI) is becoming more apparent. At the same time, average grid-connection waits in primary markets have exceeded four years, national-security / FDI scrutiny is tightening, and only 21% of respondents in a Deloitte survey of over 3,000 business leaders have a mature governance model for autonomous agents.

Dealmaking

VC rounds show significant concentration: Q1 2026 was defined more by surging deal value than broad-based deal volume expansion, suggesting that AI capital is flowing into fewer, larger financings.
Private capital remains focused on AI infrastructure: Private credit continues to provide a majority of early-stage AI infrastructure development capital, while private equity remains active in platform-scale data center investments, mature AI-enabled buyouts, and add-ons that help embed AI across portfolio companies.
Transformative deals drive M&A: Strategic buyers are using acquisitions to secure enabling technologies, enhance existing offerings, and gain greater control over workflows, differentiated data, and distribution.

Sources: Amazon, Alphabet, Barron’s, Deloitte, JLL, McKinsey, Meta, Morgan Stanley, PitchBook, PwC, Ramp

The proof threshold for software deals is rising: AI is pressuring seat-based Software-as-a-Service…

Artificial Intelligence Q1 2026 Global Report – Hot topics, deal trends, and market outlook | Ropes & Gray LLP