{"id":278508,"date":"2026-06-22T09:51:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-22T13:51:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news-you-need.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/22\/why-do-we-always-misjudge-ai-the-prediction-paradox-of-artificial-intelligence\/"},"modified":"2026-06-22T09:55:10","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T13:55:10","slug":"why-do-we-always-misjudge-ai-the-prediction-paradox-of-artificial-intelligence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news-you-need.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/22\/why-do-we-always-misjudge-ai-the-prediction-paradox-of-artificial-intelligence\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Do We Always Misjudge AI? The Prediction Paradox of Artificial Intelligence"},"content":{"rendered":"

Why Do We Always Misjudge AI? The Prediction Paradox of Artificial Intelligence<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/eu.36kr.com\/en\/p\/3864118406665478<\/a><\/p>\n

Publish Date: 2026-06-22 09:51:00<\/a><\/p>\n

Source Domain: eu.36kr.com<\/a><\/p>\n

This is the era of artificial intelligence. It is full of paradoxes, and we move forward within these paradoxes. Artificial intelligence greatly enhances people’s capabilities, yet people never seem to be able to accurately predict its future. They always make judgments that are either overly optimistic and unrealistic or overly pessimistic and see only difficulties, even those elite individuals at the top. This is the prediction paradox of artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n

Historical predictions about AI have been very unreliable<\/strong><\/h2>\n

This year marks the 70th anniversary of the term “artificial intelligence.” The 70 – year development has been accompanied by many “absurd” predictions.<\/p>\n

The young scholars who participated in the Dartmouth Conference later achieved great success. As the first – wave pioneers, they made extremely bold predictions. Many of the beautiful scenarios they envisioned for the next ten or twenty years have not been realized to this day.<\/p>\n

Allen Newell and Herbert Simon jointly won the Turing Award. They predicted (1958): “Within ten years, digital computers will discover and prove an important mathematical theorem.” Simon, who is also a Nobel laureate in economics, predicted (1965): “Within twenty years, machines will be able to do all the work that humans can do.”<\/p>\n

Marvin Minsky received the first Turing Award in the field of AI. In an interview (1970), he pointed out: “In three to eight years, we will have a machine with the average human intelligence. I mean, it will be able to read Shakespeare, refuel a car, play office politics, tell jokes, and fight.” He also said (1967): “Within a generation, the problem of creating ‘artificial intelligence’ will be basically solved.”<\/p>\n

These ambitious goals were mercilessly extinguished in the first AI winter. In the 1980s, expert systems and neural networks emerged, and artificial intelligence welcomed the second wave. So, Business Week (July 9, 1984) excitedly declared on its front – page headline: “Artificial…<\/p>\n

Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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