Superhuman Artificial Intelligence Will Make Mistakes in Forecasting Reality
Superhuman Artificial Intelligence Will Make Mistakes in Forecasting Reality
Publish Date: 2026-07-10 09:22:00
Source Domain: avi-loeb.medium.com
Press enter or click to view image in full sizeThe US national anthem preceded the opening of the FIFA World Cup quarterfinal game between France and Morocco at the Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, on July 9, 2026. (Credit: Lotem Loeb)
As we approached Gillette Stadium near Boston, Massachusetts, I informed my wife and two daughters that the most advanced models of Artificial Intelligence (AI) are forecasting a score of 2:1 in the quarterfinal game between France and Morocco. After France scored their second goal, I started rooting for Morocco in anticipation of the AI-forecasted goal. Every time Morocco’s offense arrived close to France’s goalkeeper, I chanted: “AI!, AI!”. The Moroccan fans sitting next to me had difficulties interpreting why I am rooting for their team with a slogan linked to superhuman AI.
At the end of the game, France won 2:0, not 2:1 as predicted by our most advanced AI models. This is not surprising. The score of a soccer match is dictated by a huge number of uncontrolled parameters, making accurate forecasts impossible. Even if we were to measure all the initial conditions on the field to exquisite precision, chaos could lead to exponential growth in the uncertainties on a much shorter timescale than the 90-minute duration of the game. This is partly why human behavior is unpredictable and many philosophers subscribe to the notion of “free will” despite the fact that the laws of physics leave no freedom to the behavior of the atoms that make our brain and body.
Press enter or click to view image in full sizeRelics from the Temple of the Oracle of Delphi. (Photon credit: Avi Loeb, July 4, 2026)
Last week, I visited the Temple of the Oracle in Delphi, Greece, where Pythia served as the high priestess of the Temple of Apollo from the 8th century BCE to the late 4th century CE. For over a millennium, kings, generals, and ordinary citizens traveled across the Mediterranean to seek divine guidance from the Oracle on…
