Artificial intelligence isn’t replacing the software engineer (yet)
Artificial intelligence isn’t replacing the software engineer (yet)
https://www.aol.com/articles/artificial-intelligence-isn-rsquo-t-130003230.html
Publish Date: 2026-04-07 09:12:00
Source Domain: www.aol.com
A happy young black businessman using voice assistant on his smartphone. – Prostock-studio // Shutterstock
Artificial intelligence isn’t replacing the software engineer (yet)
For much of 2024 and 2025, one particular workforce narrative dominated the technology press: artificial intelligence would devour software engineers first. The logic tracked. If AI can write code, why keep paying expensive engineers to do the same?
New research from Pave’s real-time workforce data from more than 8,700 companies tells a different story. Hiring for software engineers is rising—and the reasons why illuminate something very important about how AI is actually reshaping technical work.
Overall Hiring for Software Engineers is Steady
In short, Pave’s data doesn’t support the AI displacement narrative. Since Q4 2023, software engineers have accounted for between 19.3% and 22.5% of all new hires joining Pave’s dataset each quarter—a signal of stability and resilience, not volatility.
More importantly, absolute hiring volumes paint an even rosier picture: a consistent set of companies contributing to Pave’s real-time dataset over the past two years hired 9.0% more software engineers in 2025 than in 2024.
A data line chart showing the percentage of new hires in software engineering roles over time (Q4 2023 to Q1 2026). – Pave
If AI were systematically displacing software engineers, you’d expect to see all of these numbers dropping. They’re not.
One explanation for this seemingly surprising result is Jevons paradox, an old economics concept which states: as a resource becomes more efficient to use, total consumption of that resource tends to rise, not fall. AI tools certainly make software engineers more productive, so perhaps those productivity gains are expanding demand for engineering talent rather than eliminating jobs.
On the surface, this is good news. However, these aggregate hiring figures obscure a talent shift worth examining more closely.
