SpaceX and OpenAI IPOs are unlikely to bring skyrocketing returns that Amazon and Apple did, as companies go public later in life and early investors cash out
Publish Date: 2026-04-02 08:47:00
Source Domain: theconversation.com
Elon Musk’s SpaceX is expected to soon become a public company in what may be the biggest initial public offering in history. But my new research suggests that investors who buy shares of the company are unlikely to see the explosive growth that past IPOs had.
The rocket and satellite maker, which confidentially filed to go public on April 1, 2026, is reportedly planning to raise as much as US$75 billion in the offering, which would give it a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
SpaceX isn’t the only high-profile company expected to sell shares to the public for the first time this year. Artificial intelligence companies OpenAI and Anthropic are also expected to list in the coming months in massive IPOs.
For Wall Street, that means blockbuster deals with hefty fees for the banks involved. For early investors and executives, it could mean enormous paydays. For everyday investors, meanwhile, the question is whether a hot company “going public” today represents a good investment opportunity.
What does it really mean when a company “goes public”?
For decades, an IPO marked the moment when ordinary investors could buy into a fast-growing company and share in its future expansion. Today, that moment often comes much later in a company’s life – after much of the dramatic growth has already taken place behind closed doors.
I study financial reporting, executive compensation and initial public offerings. In a recent study of nearly 1,000 U.S. IPOs conducted from 2007 to 2022, my co-authors and I examined what happens in the critical period just before and after companies go public. Our research suggests that the modern IPO increasingly represents a chance for insiders and executives to cash out — not the start of value creation for public investors.
IPOs used to fund growth
An IPO is when a private company sells shares to the public for the first time. Traditionally, IPOs helped young, cash-strapped companies raise money to grow. Investors…
