Administrative Law and AI’s Overconfidence

https://www.theregreview.org/2026/03/23/coglianese-administrative-law-and-ais-overconfidence/

Publish Date: 2026-03-23 00:14:00

Although artificial intelligence can support many tasks, officials should beware of overly confident results.

I suspect we all know the type of person who is willing to offer a confident answer to just about any question. The answer need not always be correct, or even particularly sensible, but the person expressing it displays unalloyed fervor and unshakable certitude. This type of person can tell you exactly what is wrong with sports teams, Washington politics, and the culture at large. They will opine with just as much conviction about how to fix the potholes in city streets as to how to achieve world peace.

I have encountered this type of person from time to time when I have been a passenger in a taxicab. Along with driving me to my destination, some of my taxi drivers over the years have also been willing to share with me their diagnoses of all that ails the world and what government must or must not do in response.

The most widely known forms of AI can, if not used thoughtfully, produce answers that are not entirely dissimilar from those offered by overconfident taxi drivers. These AI-produced answers sound convincing because of a combination of a degree of plausibility and an air of authority in expression. Agency officials need to be on their guard against over-reliance on untested and insufficiently thoughtful uses of AI. Even in the age of exploding reliance on AI tools like ChatGPT—which garners over 700 million users per week—courts will continue to demand the type of reason-giving long expected of agencies to ensure that adjudicatory and regulatory decisions are made on the basis of sound evidence and analysis—and not on the basis of the policy equivalent of taxi driver opinions.

I hasten to note, of course, that I do not mean to suggest that all taxi drivers are overly opinionated. Nor do I mean to deny that opinionated people can occupy all sorts of other jobs and walks of life. I have encountered colleagues with advanced degrees who are more…

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